Trade variables and Current Account “reversals”: Does the choice of definition matter? An application to Latin American countries
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.55444/2451.7321.2012.v50.n1.10253Keywords:
current account, debt, reversal , probit, comparisonAbstract
This paper demonstrates that the choice between alternative definitions of current account reversal suggested in the literature does matter for the identification of the frequency and dating of reversals. Using variables suggested by the solvency hypothesis three models of a random effect probity are estimated, and the results are compared to highlight the role of the statistical identification of “reversal” used in the exercise. Growth, exports, and changes in terms of trade, are significant, and have the expected signs. The results highlight both the critical role of trade variables in the genesis of reversals and that the choice of definition matters for the sign and significance of determinants.
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