Valuación de opciones reales: análisis comparativo entre el modelo binomial y su versión borrosa
Keywords:
real options, binomial, fuzzyAbstract
The paper shows different real options valuation models classified according to their probabilistic or fuzzy nature, and paying attention to the binomial method and its fuzzy version. The last conjugates binomial real option valuation model’s traditional concepts with the fuzzy logic, and transforms itself in a complement for evaluation investment decisions in real assets, specially, front ambiguities information situations. The structure of the document is the following: first a summary revision is shown, where the real options models are enunciated according their probabilistic or fuzzy nature. Then the binomial model and its fuzzy version is formally derived, and illustrates with an application case. For that a project with options of investment-continue-abandonment is valued. The conclusion is that the fuzzy version is a complement of the binomial model, being useful in investment decisions for information vague or ambiguity situations like innovative projects, technological development, inexistences of mimics financial assets in the market, among other.
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